Exit polls by the three broadcasters: Democratic Party wins in 11, People Power Party in 1, four ‘toss-up’ races

Yonhap News

In exit polls by the three terrestrial broadcasters for the 16 metropolitan and provincial chief races in the June 3 local elections, the Democratic Party was projected to win in 11 areas including Seoul, while the People Power Party was projected to win in one area, North Gyeongsang.

Four areas including Busan·Daegu·North Jeolla·Gangwon were predicted as ‘toss-up areas’.

KBS, MBC, and SBS released the exit poll results at 6 p.m., when voting ended.

In the Seoul mayoral race, seen as the biggest battleground, Democratic Party candidate Jeong Won-o was found to be ahead with 51.4%, compared with People Power Party candidate Oh Se-hoon at 46.0%.

In the Busan mayoral race, Democratic Party candidate Jeon Jae-su (50.2%) and People Power Party candidate Park Hyung-joon (48.3%) were locked in a close contest.

The Daegu mayoral race between Democratic Party candidate Kim Bu-gyeom (49.1%) and People Power Party candidate Chu Kyung-ho (49.9%) was expected to be an ultra-close contest.

In the North Jeolla governor race, the projected vote shares for Democratic Party candidate Lee Won-taek (48.5%) and independent candidate Kim Kwan-young (46.3%) were separated by a small margin.

Meanwhile, JTBC's projection survey forecast 10 wins for the Democratic Party and one for the People Power Party, and classified five areas Daegu·South Chungcheong·North Chungcheong·North Jeolla·South Gyeongsang as competitive.

The combined exit poll by the three broadcasters was commissioned to Hankook Research·Ipsos·Korea Research International. Fieldwork was conducted from 6 a.m. to 6 p.m. today. It surveyed about 108,727 voters across 16 metropolitan and provincial jurisdictions at 615 polling stations nationwide, using equal-interval sampling by selecting every fifth voter exiting the polling place. The margin of error is ±1.7%p to 4.1%p at the 95% confidence level.

The exit poll incorporated results from a public opinion survey conducted during the early voting period over four days from May 30 to the 2nd, targeting 11,357 voters nationwide, which were reflected in the final projection. That survey was conducted as a telephone interview using 100% mobile virtual numbers, and at the 95% confidence level the sampling error ranges by jurisdiction from a minimum of ±3.1%p to a maximum of ±5.5%p.

JTBC's projection was conducted after voting ended at 6 p.m. on the day, using its own analytical framework.